By MIKE CORN

mcorn@dailynews.net

Sticker shock, it's not.

That's what Midwest Energy officials had predicted, with the price of natural gas forecast to climb sharply higher this winter.

Instead, natural gas prices -- much like the price of fuel -- has fallen sharply, and with a forecast for a normal winter, the outlook is almost rosy.

In August, Midwest spokesman Bob Helm suggested that natural gas prices were forecast to climb 20 percent to 30 percent this winter. That would have meant sharply higher home heating costs, as natural gas costs account for roughly 60 percent of the cost of heating a home.

With the precipitous drop in natural gas prices, however, Helm said it now appears conditions -- costs to heat a house -- could be on par with last year.

In July and August, when estimates were being prepared, utility companies were seeing natural gas prices of about $12 for every 1,000 cubic feet. Today, Helm said, prices are hovering at just under $7.

All that's good news for customers, who pay a pass-through rate from Midwest Energy on the natural gas consumed.

That doesn't mean rates are going down. Instead, Midwest simply passes along its cost of purchasing natural gas, and then assesses a customer charge and transmission charge -- the cost of maintaining pipelines.

Gas costs are assessed based on monthly natural gas costs incurred by Midwest.

While that's not technically a rate decrease, it is sure to deflate the size of monthly bills.

"Prices are very comparable to what they were last year, maybe even lower," Helm said this morning. "Even if we have normal weather now, we should be comparable to what we had last year."

Most forecasts are predicting a normal year as far as winter weather is concerned.

"If that's the case," Helm said of normal weather, "that's pretty good news."

That's a good position for Midwest to be in, considering the warnings they were issuing. Midwest is not, however, backing away from its suggestion that customers would be wise to look into the utility company's budget billing plan.

That way, Helm said, costs are leveled out over the year and a dose of sticker shock -- either from skyrocketing prices or an abrupt cold snap in the case of heating costs -- is smoothed out.

Budget billing plans are not based on price forecasts, Helm said. As a result, there shouldn't be any big adjustments payment plan levels.

Monthly payment levels are based on use over the previous 12 months.